Global lubes demand predictions and EVs impact peak oil dates.
A drain on lubes demand? Image: Commons |
Electric vehicles (EVs) are cited as being one of the causes of a fall in global lubricant demand.
According to Lube Report, Fuchs Petrolub SE Chief Technology Officer, Lutz Lindemann, stated recently that growing popularity in EVs will combine with of new materials and increased efficiency in equipment operation and lubes use to create a dip in global lubricant demand over the next 10 to 15 years.
Predicting a fall of some 450,000 metric tons by 2027 from 2016's 35.7m ton figure, Lindemann warned that lubricant companies need to anticipate the future. However, even with OEMs developing EVs to meet government demands, a predicted increase in overall vehicle sales in China is likely to keep the gobal lube market bouyant over the coming decade.
The drop in lubricants demand has also kept the Peak Oil predictors guessing. According to Rob West, from investment advisory firm Redburn, there are five serious trends which are likely to lead to a peak in crude oil demand in 2026:
- alternatives to oil
- electric vehicles - likely to have an increasing market share as they become mainstream and there is a charging infrastructure
- reducing oil subsidies
- alternative cheaper electric power providers - solar, wind and gas-fired
- reduced travel demand as population ages
According to West, it is technology in particular that will be a key driver in accelerating the global oil peak.
But his views are contradicted by the latest data from Facts Global Energy (FGE) which suggests that the number of EVs on the road will remain dwarfed by petrol vehicles for at least 20 years. The report predicts that EVs will number around 10% of the 1.8bn passenger vehicles on the road globally by 2040. As a result, a peak in oil and petroleum demand is unlikely any time soon.
According to FGE battery density remains a serious issue which, the report indicates, has seen slow progress as manufacturers battle with the challenge of increasing the range between charges while reducing batter weight and size.
Certainly in line with Lindemann's China predictions, FGE expects more growth in petrol demand in Asia over the next 25 years from the rest of the world combined.