Experts from the State Research Centre predict a new wave in car sales within the next few years
China's State Research Centre is optimistic about the relationship between national GDP growth and the automotive industry and has predicted a new growth cycle to start around 2013.
The assesment comes despite China's automobile sales and production increased by only 3% in 2011, compared with 5% in 2008, and is the lowest figure since 2001. Experts have attributed the poor sales figures to restrictive policies, slow increase in urban domestic income, and the rising costs of imported oil as some of the main contributing factors. However,
According to Pan Jiancheng, Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics' Economic Monitoring Centre, despite the slow increase in volume, the car equipment manufacturing industry is reporting higher than average sales and most major auto companies are reporting profit growths of around 9%.
The limited sales policies do not indicate a lack of market demand, but in fact show that the market demand is too great. Pan expects new economic restructuring over the next 2 to 3 years will relax restrictions on car buyers, and lead to increased market growth.
Deputy Minister Yang Jianlong has also stated a belief that increased investment as a result of national GDP growth will lead to adjustments in industry and consumption, creating opportunities for a new boom in the car market. According to Yang Jianlong, the current slump in sales are indicative of a new round of growth, and estimates that overall sales will reach 23 to 24 million by 2015.