ExxonMobil’s latest report sees oil remaining the top energy resource in 2040.
ExxonMobil's report “The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040" also forecasts that coal demand will peak and then begin a gradual decline with natural gas overtaking to become the Number Two global fuel. Nuclear power and renewables are also set for growth.
Although global population is projected to expand from seven billion to nearly nine billion by 2040, it is the age, location and lifestyle of that population that will determine energy consumption. Taking into account many rapidly growing economies, the report forecasts include:
- energy supply and demand patterns are changing and providing greater global trade opportunities - 2030 is likely to see North American countries move from being net importers to net exporters of oil-based products.
- a rise in global energy demand for transportation by 43% from 2010 to 2040 with Asia Pacific exceeding North America by 2015.
- continued energy consumption reduction from energy-saving practices and greater vehicle fuel-efficiency - conventional gasoline and diesel engine vehicles are forecast to account for just 50% of the fleet in 2040.
- economic structure change - for example, China will move from an energy-intensive manufacturing-based economy to a more consumer-based economy, requiring less energy use.
- technology will help to make the supply of hard-to-produce energy easier and safer. Global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are likely to peak in 2030 due to efficiency gains and a gradual transition to less carbon-intensive energy supplies.
Overall, ExxonMobil predicts the demand for global energy will increase by 35%, with the growth rate of all types of energy averaging one percent annually from 2010 to 2040. Electricity will be the greatest energy requirement and is expected to lead to a doubling of the use of nuclear energy. Wind, solar and biofuels are likely to account for four percent of global energy demand by 2040.
There is a marked contrast between projections for Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and non-OECD countries. Both energy demand and emissions are projected to drop in the OECD, but are likely to rise by 2040 in non-OECD countries where economic development is at different stages nationally, with varying degrees and types of energy are used.
ExxonMobil comments the disparity is because: “in non OECD countries, efficiency gains will be outpaced by the demand for energy to support better living standards and expanding prosperity for about 85 percent of the world’s people.”