Developing nations will drive global energy for the next 30 years, with fossil fuels providing the majority of the supply.
The statistics are part of the latest "Outlook for Energy" report from ExxonMobil, looking at global supply and demand and, for the first time, extending its forecasts through to 2040. According to the report, energy demand from the developing nations is predicted to increase by nearly 60% from 2010 to 2040, with total global demand up 30% in the same period.
Oil is set to remain the most widely used fuel, but the volume of demand is certain to be offset by greater vehicle fuel economy (a global average of close to 50mpg by 2040) as well as more effective use of less carbon-intensive fuels, such as natural gas. The report states that without the predicted efficiency gains, energy demand increase would be closer to 120%.
Electricity pylons Image: Herry Lawford |
The single largest influence on energy trends across the period remains electricity, with demand for electrical power forecast to increase by 80% to 2040 and an estimated 4/10 units of energy being used to generate electricity. From an environmental perspective, however, significantly more (30%) of this demand will be met by cleaner, gas-produced generation, moving away from the more carbon-intensive coal power.
The non-Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) nations, such as China and India, are set to drive increased energy demand, with the US and other developed nations' demand staying relatively constant.
Despite being the second highest energy using source, transportation demand will remain relatively flat for the next 30 years, helped by improved engine, fuel and lubes efficiency and a predicted 50% of vehicle being hybrid in 2040, from just 1% in 2010.
Liquid-fuel demand is likely to come from an increasingly diverse range of sources including deepwater, oil sands, tight oil, natural gas liquids and biofuels, with natural gas continuing to be the fastest-growing major fuel. Despite short-term concerns over nuclear power, heightened by the Japanese tsunami, ExxonMobil predicts that nuclear power demand will still double over the period of the report.