A new BMI oil and gas report predicts a steep rise in Chinese oil demand over the next decade.
Beijing traffic jam Image: poeloq |
The newly published report from Business Monitor International (BMI “China Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011”, forecasts that the country will make up 37.2% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2015, whilst providing 52.2% of the supply.
Regional oil use should also rise around 14% from 26 million to 30 million barrels-per-day by the middle of the decade, whereas production rates are likely to decrease from 7.92m bpd in 2010 to 7.88, bpd in 2015.
Oil imports are increasing rapidly, as demand growth outstrips the pace of supply expansion. The main importers in the region will be China, Japan, India and South Korea, with the only net exporter being Malaysia. Oil consumption is set to rise by 39.2% to 13.1m bpd by 2020, which will present challenges as China's oil production is also forecast to decrease by 4.5% over the decade, with crude volumes peaking in 2014 at 4.1m bpd and falling steadily thereafter to 3.9m bpd by 2020.