China and other non-OECD countries will drive the world's energy economy over the next 30 years, although China's demand will peak.
Pumping up China's fuel demand Image: YaoWenguo |
The forecast comes in the latest "Outlook for Energy" global review from ExxonMobil which has, for the first time, been extended to 2040. In the report, the oil giant predicts that non-Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries will drive the world's energy needs, with global demand for all forms of energy predicted to rise by 0.9% annually until 2040.
With many Asian countries, including Indonesia and Vietnam, becoming industrial drivers, industrial energy demand is likely to rise three-fold between 2010 and 2040. However, the report also predicts that while China's exponential growth in energy demand will continue for the next 20 years, it is likely to plateau from around 2030 as economic maturity sets in and expansion begin to settle.
As China's energy demands start to level out, its emissions are also forecast to decline. In fact, the latter is likely to happen some five years earlier, starting in 2025, levelling at around six tons per person by 2040. This will be helped by energy saving measures as well as tighter emissions standards.