A massive increase in new drivers could have a negative environmental impact
Who's driving? Image: Michael Abshear |
According to Shi Jianhua, deputy secretary general of the state-backed China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM one billion people could have driving licenses in the next 10 to 15 years - a significant increase on the 280m people that held a valid license in 2013.
Although the swelling number of drivers does not necessarily correspond to the number of cars on the road, it will certainly prove a challenge to policy makers looking to curb auto usage and encourage citizens to use public transport.
Reinforcing the social and environmental benefits of clean air and less congestion against personal freedom, social aspiration and convenience will be a challenging hurdle for rulemakers to overcome.
In 2013 there were 127m civilian vehicles on the road, a number that may rise to 200m by 2020. In their current state, China's roads could support 300m vehicles. While there is spare capacity for the moment, the influx of new drivers is likely to put strain on China's road network.
Nonetheless, the tide of qualified drivers should be a boon for rental companies, whose fleet already makes up some 10% of total passenger vehicles.