Iraq is set to overtake Russian deliveries to China within two decades according to the IEA.
A recent report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that China is slated to become the main customer for Iraqi oil by 2030. The energy-hungry nation is already firming up investment in Iraqi oil production infrastructure, despite the potential political risks.
While Iraq is still being slowly rebuilt after nearly a decade of conflict, Fatih Birol, the IEA's chief economist, believes it will “emerge as a major new oil producer by the 2030s”. The agency predicts that output in Iraq will exceed six million barrels-per-day in 2020, before rising to eight million barrels-per-day by 2035.
Currently, oil from the war-torn nation makes up only five percent of China's total imports at around 275,000 barrels-per-day. The report forecasts that the US will become the world's largest oil producer, overtaking Saudi Arabia, by as early as 2020, meaning oil exporting nations in the Middle East will have to look elsewhere for buyers.
Global oil demand is expected to reach a staggering 99.7 million barrels-per-day by 2035, say the IEA, at which point the price is likely rise to $125 per barrel.
China's top five suppliers are (in order) Saudi Arabia, Angola, Iran, Russia and Oman. Within the next decade, however, the growing superpower looks likely to increase imports from South America, Canada and other Middle Easter Nations.