The EPA and NHTSA have announced the establishment of Phase 2 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and fuel efficiency standards for medium and heavy-duty vehicles. This news would suggest that, nearly 20 years after Kyoto protocol, the US is finally getting serious about emission controls.
Claims that this could reduce the fuel consumption for tractor trailers by 24% are indicative, also, that the nation's lubricants consumption could start to fall more rapidly than previously expected. As I have commented previously, the US per capita consumption is out of line with the rest of the world.
Combining this latest US initiative with continued research into on-going, dynamic engine and lubricant monitoring systems, the methodology for achieving these major changes is also evolving with greater clarity.
Meanwhile, in the economic and political environment, Europe remains transfixed by the financial problems facing 10 million Greek residents. While an agreement about an agreement appears to have been reached, the fallout could still be significant for the 350 million population of the entire Eurozone.
Yet the scale of a crisis is relative. Contrast Greece's worries with those of Puerto Rico (population just 3.5m). Even though the country's debt to GDP ratio is a “modest” 68%, it is is still leading to degrees of social unrest.
Nobody is suggesting that Puerto Rico stops using the Dollar, but there are certainly similarities to the Euro crisis and the potential for wider-spread fallout across the American content. At the other end of the scale, China could also be about to face its own banking crisis after the recent stock exchange melt-down
Whatever the eventual outcome of the current Euro crisis - and there is clearly still plenty of work to be done to resolve it - the real story is the continued recovery across Europe as a whole - PMI 54.2 and improving. The US economy also continues to strengthen (PMI 53.5 and rising) and even China's PMI is still just in the positive at 50.2, although the latter may not be for much longer.
That said, the investments being made by Shell, opening its eighth refining/blending plant with a new site in Tianjin, and by TOTAL and Sinopec in Singapore, confirm the continuing trend of the world moving South and East. These investments will be long-lasting and will certainly see-out any short-term crises.
The decision made in Lancashire, England, not to permit fracking is unfortunate for those who want to see lower European (and UK) gas prices and a possible boost in oil revenues. However, it may be that other regions with lower population density, in nearby Yorkshire for example, will enable the industry to move ahead here and set a benchmark for the rest of Europe.
Whatever the outcomes, wherever in the world, the need for accurate data to enable the lubricants industry to make informed decisions only increases. OATS is set to remain at the forefront of providing this data and helping both lubes producers and OEMS find the best way forward in volatile times.
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Sebastian Crawshaw
Chairman - OATS