Five years after the 2008 financial crisis, the pattern of working-through the economic mess is beginning to emerge. However, the bias has changed as the picture becomes clearer.
Globally, PMI has been shifting more positively in the US and the UK; but negatively in Eurozone and China, both dropping again to below 50.
With the continued US recovery comes the potential tapering of “extraordinary measures” such as Quantitative Easing, having provided the stimulus that was needed.
In the UK, recent statements from the Bank of England, now under the Governorship of Canadian, Mark Carney, indicate that such monetary looseness will continue for some time yet, even though the first signs of a changing economy are emerging. For example, UK year-on-year car sales are up more than 13%.
The Eurozone has seemingly shrugged off the latest governmental crisis in Portugal and is relying on the commitment from the ECB to “do what it takes”. Car sales are at a 20 year low and down 8-10% in key markets. However, the lack of overall growth and dreadful youth unemployment is telling, though the recession may be easing.
By contrast, the new Chinese government has taken extraordinary measures to combat shadow-banking where lending had become completely out of hand. The sharp squeeze applied to the banks has been eased, but the demonstration of economic control has been made forcefully. China needs to handle its real estate bubble to avoid an asset collapse which might derail general economic growth.
At the most extreme end, the economic collapse in Egypt, amongst other issues, has led to military intervention to try and re-start the country's ailing economy.
Just to demonstrate that politics really does affect the lubricants industry directly, the German government has acted to protect the German car makers, by blocking the adoption of CO2 rules, ahead of the German elections.
Responsive web content is essential Image: OATS |
Meanwhile The UKLA has launched its Verification of Lubricant Specifications (VLS). VLS will provide an unbiased independent regime for testing specification claims and will respond to specific complaints. With a similar objective to FSQ in Germany, the industry is taking action to clean up its own act. This is being complemented by ATIEL who are planning to sample a broad range of products.
While the drive to meet ever-higher emission controls and fuel efficiency continues the complexity of some of the specifications has been highlighted, at ICIS 2013, as being potentially unaffordable.
Consumers need to be able to purchase lubricants that will meet their requirements with confidence. If this process is made too complex, then there will be limited competition in a restricted aftermarket. This may suit the OEMS, but there is a tension between being the specifiers and those marketing their own lubricants.
For consumers themselves, in an “always on, always connected” world, the shift from PCs to tablets and other mobile devices continues. OATS is observing more growth in access recommendation sites from devices with different shapes and displays.
If websites are not built to be “responsive”, they are no longer fit for purpose for the modern consumer and need to be re-built. OATS clients are starting to benefit from this responsive approach. To find out more, contact Jeremy Hyde.
Finally, we have also seen that you appreciate the changes to our new-look Bulletin and Lubes Resource Centre. However, we continue to welcome your feedback, suggestions and comments which you can provide by simply clicking here.
Sebastian Crawshaw
Chairman, OATS