The economic crisis in Cyprus and the war-like pronouncements from North Korea are illustrations of how the unexpected can affect the bigger picture.
As a tiny part of the Eurozone economy, Cyprus has proven that bank depositors and not just investors are at risk. The “German-imposed” economic settlement has caused a stir all over Southern Europe, where the rumbling volcano of European debt may erupt again, further depressing economic performance.
All of this is set against a background of a weakening Eurozone. PMI in March fell to 46.5% from 47.7% in February, with unemployment rising to 12%. The German economy is only just in positive territory, with a PMI of 50%, but stagnating; the emerging Eastern Europe economies have also slipped back. The European mire continues.
In the US, PMI remains positive at 51.3%. Housing prices rose 8% in January and have been contributing some strength, whilst car sales have also continued to progress, rising 3-6% depending on brand. While payroll growth in March was less than hoped for, the US is still leading the way globally, along with China, in maintaining the growth stimulus so clearly absent in Europe. Abenomics might bring Japan out of their malaise too!
Amidst the doom and gloom, both economic and within the energy and lubes sectors, Fuchs managed to offer a ray of hope, posting record figures for 2012 on particularly buoyant sales, with the Board setting ambitious targets for this year as well.
Meanwhile, the UK has picked up on the cumulative impact of fuel efficiency and economic caution. Fuel sales over the last 5 years have dropped by 9%, with petrol in particular falling 20% as consumers switch to diesel. Imagine the long term impact of the US switching to diesel? It may not be likely but sooner or later consumers there will realise they do not need to change their oil as frequently as they have done traditionally. More lightweight “European” style engines will drive higher quality lubricants but also greater complexity in selecting the right oil.
Finally, I commented last month on the “always online, always connected” trend. This is supported by the growth of mobile internet usage. In India, for example, mobile access has already overtaken landline access. In the US, roughly half mobile users are on smartphones, yet in India that figure is just four percent.
Whilst emerging economies like India, China, Brazil, and Indonesia are leading the shift towards a mobile-centric Internet (supported by tablet sales outstripping PCs over the past 12 months there is still some way to go with both the distribution of technology and the Android/Apple/Microsoft battle. The implications are that “apps” are not sufficient. What is required are internet sites which are adapted to be responsive to any technology and capable of performing seamlessly regardless of platform or format. This is the macro picture.
Within the lubricants sector, access requirements for B2B and B2C data varies from country to country. OATS is seeing interesting differences in both technology and data usage patterns as we talk to our customers around the world. These conversations are providing us with a detailed picture, and thus expertise, to identify the best local or regional solutions for lubes data distribution and presentation.
Naturally, we would be delighted to offer this expertise to upgrade your existing website, or implement a new cross-platform lubricant recommendations service. To find out more; book a webinar to enhance your understanding of web-based lubes data; or discuss anything you have read in this Bulletin, simply click here to contact us.
Sebastian Crawshaw
Chairman, OATS