Global growth dropped to almost three percent in 2012 and, with all the focus on the new political mandates in China and the US, the rest of the BRICS dropped out of focus somewhat.
Brazil has stalled on the back of a high exchange rate, with growth being just 1.1% over the whole year and just 0.6% in the last Quarter. Russia showed an identical increase in Q4, bringing its national annual growth to 2.9% over the year, while South Africa managed just 2.6%
After two quarters of 0.6% growth, The Asian Development Bank (ADB) recently cut India’s annual growth forecast to 5.4% for 2012-13, barely two months after it had made a projection of 5.6 per cent growth for the Asia’s third largest economy.
By contrast, the US is growing at 2.7% in the final quarter, although there is a forecast of slowing growth in the coming year. Meanwhile, China continues to power forward, albeit at a lower rate than previously at 7.5%
The Eurozone “beggar my neighbour” austerity has finally had the inevitable effect. Germany’s powerhouse economy is seeing a fall in activity and the overall forecast is still grim. Their PMI has risen slightly to 46.8 while, by contrast, Italy continues its decline from 45.3 to 45.1 in November - defying predictions of 46. Finally, in Asia, Japan remains mired in a recession.
Overall, the main drivers around the world look set to remain the world’s two largest which continue to grow, despite all around them apparently in decline. So, while the European outlook remains difficult and global organisations adjust their plans downwards, the US and China (along with some other parts of Asia) will help push demand forward.
Their dynamism also includes a continued demand for oil, gas and lubricants. The emergence of shale gas, with its promise of lower cost energy, appears to be changing the global order; reducing the cost of gas and, probably, crude oil in the long-term and literally re-energising the Americas.
However, the balance between suppliers - particularly Canada - and purchasers, especially China, remains a difficult one. Witness the recent CNOOC/Nexen and Petronas/Progress Energy deals, which have now been approved by the Canadian government but only on the basis (at least for the moment) that no further overseas deals will be approved in the future.
The last couple of months have seen several technical service bulletins, from Caterpillar, Volvo Trucks and Mack amongst others. OATS, of course, continues to monitor these along with the progress UEIL continues to make in helping OEMs bring their recommendations into the broader domain.
On the internet front, the increased use of access via mobile devices, along with the exponential rise of non-Apple devices, means that responsive web solutions that work across any platform is increasingly important.
OATS has now developed solutions that provide such applications capable of working across most mobile hardware and global telecomms networks.
As we head towards 2013, OATS continues to pull together all of the OEM data requirements, lubricants technical issues, along with general oil and lubes marketing including the online marketing.
As always, via the OATS Bulletin and our regular client conversations, we will continue to keep you abreast of developments in each area.
While only leaves me to wish all of you a very happy and healthy Festive Season and I look forward to some interesting and challenge conversations in the coming year. In the meantime, if you would like to comment on this, or anything else you have read in our monthly OATS Bulletin, please don't hesitate to contact us.
Sebastian Crawshaw
Chairman, OATS