As much of Europe heads for its summer holidays there are reasons for optimism! Wimbledon tennis was won by a Spaniard, Spain are also the World Cup soccer Champions after beating Holland in the final, and a Frenchman is currently 'King of the Mountains' in the Tour de France.
More importantly, while the European banks may be suffering from the risk of debt crisis and stress tests, the German economy is bouncing back and the UK is showing signs of limited growth.
The German engineering association (VDMA) has raised its growth forecast from zero to 3% and are approaching levels of 2008. According to the organisation, “with this level of order inflow we will soon face the problem of skills shortage” (FT 5th July p 15). If this is the case then the European lubricants market should pick up as well.
Given the previous dire forecasts of EU performance, where is this all coming from? It would appear exports to China are up 60% on 2009.
The China story continues to amaze. While the Chinese authorities are reportedly seeking to slow growth, the consensus forecast is still a 10% improvement on an economy that has already added the equivalent of two “UK economies” in the last decade. Goldman Sachs, presenting at the recent CBBC conference, is forecasting that China’s growth over the next 10 years will be equal to US, Brazil, Russia and India combined!!
Meanwhile European (and increasingly the US) marketers are having to deal with the revision of product ranges to meet the ACEA 2008 specification changes that come fully into force at the end of this year. The timing closely coincides with ACEA 2010 conference.
If you are about to enter the vacation season, on behalf of everyone at OATS may I wish you happy holidays. In the meantime, should you require further materials for marketing relaunches don’t hesitate to contact your OATS sales representative. As always, if you have any news or comments then contact us at bulletin@oats.co.uk.
Sebastian Crawshaw, Chairman OATS